Quick takes: Trade, Russia/ Ukraine, NYC's SOYA Electorate, Rebranding 'Progressives'

Throwing Out the Package with the Bath Water on Trade: The Trump administration has officially ended the de minimis exemption which allowed imported packages under $800 into the U.S duty free. Last year it covered over $1.3 billion packages. This will have major but under-reported causalities. Not only will the expected inflationary effects of tariffs finally arrive, a high number of small online businesses that often are home based will be severely affected. They often are supplemental income for many Americans and source inventory or resources from overseas. Small online businesses experienced a significant surge in numbers since 2020, driven largely by the shift towards e-commerce during the COVID pandemic which was its main catalyst. A silver lining of the lockdowns were the many creative ideas and business ventures it inspired.

E- commerce businesses, accounting for 1 out of every 3 new businesses formed during the pandemic, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Online platforms like Shopify, Etsy and EBay facilitated new entrepreneurial opportunities especially for niche products that weren’t conceivable before. Unlike major industries which also often rely on items from overseas as part of their supply chain, small vendors don’t have the powerful lobbyists as they do. President Trump’s trade and industrial priorities should not be about dolls but setting the conditions to encourage American manufacturing of critical items such as medicine and technologies. Also making things that makes other things including dolls such as incentivizing more 3D printing manufacturing which the U.S lags way behind China. Ending the de minimis exemption is one of Trump's " throwing out the baby with the bath water" on trade. The unnecessary disruptions of supply chain which will influence higher costs of products and even affect American businesses. There is also a political casualty to President Trump and Republicans for the mid-term elections. Many of these small business owners were swing voters who gave the GOP the White House and Congressional majorities last November.

Start Hitting Putin's Oligarchs with Sanctions and Travel Bans: Despite President Trump's efforts to end Russia's war on Ukraine, Russia's President Putin has not budged. In a lack of good faith during negotiating, Russia continues to bomb Ukraine civilian population and implies that Ukraine should cede territories to Russia which it has failed to conquer. However, there is leverage President Trump has which he should assert to real concessions to end the war from President Putin. President Trump should threaten to impose harsh sanctions and even travel restrictions on the many business passengers who accompanied Mr. Putin’s on his trip to the Alaska Summit. Their presence signaled the importance to Russia’s economy and the Putin regime. If Russia’s powerful oligarchs and their families face the squeeze on doing business or even travelling to the West or even potentially losing visas for their children to go to universities in the U.S, the overwhelming pressure of making Mr. Putin ‘bad for business’ would put immense internal pressure on his power. In addition, Mr. Trump should remove restrictions on Ukraine using long range U.S made weapons it already has into Russia. Mr. Putin has used delay tactics in trying to galvanize a military victory in Ukraine. Having internal pressures on his pocket and power would be a good deterrent.

There is Nothing Progressive about Regressive Results: Recent reports in the WSJ an indicate that blue states could lose up to 10 seats in the U.S House of Representatives after the 2030 census. The reasoning was described as “The real problem for Democrats is that progressive policies are driving population flight.” It is not progress or progressive when economic and social policies cause people and capital to flee a state or cause quality of life to diminish. Maybe if we should stop labeling these Democrat or liberal policies and politicians as the oxymoronic names they wish to be called and instead appropriately call them as they are, ‘regressive’. Possibly the leaders who are running these cities and states into the ground so much that people flee, won’t be so emboldened to enforce these policies or run for president and do the same thing for the rest of the country. Prominent blue state governors Gavin Newsom of California and JB Pritzker of Illinois are positioning themselves as presidential contenders for 2028 despite those states leading the nation in net outward migration of people and capital. Anywhere in America that has been dominated with 'progressive' policies have seen the most regressive direction in crime, cost of living and quality of life sometimes akin to 3rd World countries where people flee. If the rest of America goes in such a regressive direction, there is nowhere else to flee to. 

NY's SOYA Electorate May Give it a Communist Mayor: NYC is on the verge of electing a communist mayor, Zohran Mamdani. Like other NY elections with low voter turnout relative to registered voters, this may be attributed to having a SOYA ( sit on your a..s) electorate. This helped Mr. Mamdani in the primaries. Of the 3.5 million registered Democrat voters in NYC. Only 986K voted in the primary with 428k choosing the most radical socialist and communist sympathizer from a weak bench of nominees despite what is publicly known of him. Moreso, like many other liberal bastions in America, Mr. Mamdani's base mainly comprised of upper income elite young people who most like will be able to afford to insulate themselves from the effects of Mr. Mamdani's socialist dreams or move out when they affect them personally. The prevalence of SOYA electorates who are not engaged with who their candidates or representatives are, almost guarantee weak candidates who won’t solve problems, and that a much smaller percentage of the electorate will actually decide the election. If electorates applied the same standards to choosing candidates as they do an Amazon purchase, there would be better candidates and better real chances of solving issues.

It's ironic that NYC which has been the refuge for millions of people who fled communist countries would now elect a communist mayor. It seems like insanity that NYC would elect a mayor who will double town on the policies that have metastasized to ruin the city back to the pre- Guiliani and Bloomberg days. Apart from the anti- Sematic sentiments, Mr. Mamdani has repackaged failing ideas and is advocating them as 'new' or 'change' such as more rent control which already has caused less housing availability and increased rent prices, soft on crime policies to reduce penalties on misdemeanors, less policing, free bus service (which will no doubt encourage vagrants living on the buses), and encouraging legalizing prostitution. These goals may be branded as 'progressive' but in real world application has always proven regressive results.